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1. FC Merseburg vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:00
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
4/25/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Sportplatz Ulmenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg35%
×Draw26%
Ludwigsfelde39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.25
Ludwigsfelde
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 50 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
61%
1. FC Merseburg or Ludwigsfelde
74%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
65%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
15%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
71%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
36%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
13%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
74%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
39%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
47%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
35%
level
26%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
39%

Ludwigsfelde at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 1. FC Merseburg host Ludwigsfelde

April 25, 2021: 1. FC Merseburg take on Ludwigsfelde in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

1. FC Merseburg host Ludwigsfelde at Sportplatz Ulmenweg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.