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1. FC Merseburg vs International Leipzig — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
FT
1 – 0
International Leipzig
International Leipzig
8/22/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg38%
×Draw24%
International Leipzig38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.55
International Leipzig
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
International Leipzig
1.36

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
International Leipzig
2.55

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

International Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
62%
1. FC Merseburg or International Leipzig
76%
Draw or International Leipzig
62%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
19%
International Leipzig wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
79%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
46%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
20%
International Leipzig 1+ goals
79%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
45%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
50%
International Leipzig (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
38%
level
24%
International Leipzig scores more
38%

1. FC Merseburg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "1. FC Merseburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: 1. FC Merseburg 1–0 International Leipzig

1. FC Merseburg beat International Leipzig 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadtstadion Merseburg in Merseburg.