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1. FC Merseburg vs FC Grimma — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
FT
0 – 3
FC Grimma
FC Grimma
10/17/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg33%
×Draw25%
FC Grimma42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.32
FC Grimma
1.52

FC Grimma creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 82 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
FC Grimma
1.30

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
FC Grimma
2.09

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
FC Grimma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

FC Grimma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
58%
1. FC Merseburg or FC Grimma
75%
Draw or FC Grimma
67%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
14%
FC Grimma wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
73%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
38%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
15%
FC Grimma 1+ goals
78%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
45%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
44%
FC Grimma (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

FC Grimma away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.09 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + FC Grimma defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Grimma attack 1.30 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
33%
level
25%
FC Grimma scores more
42%

FC Grimma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Grimma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: 1. FC Merseburg 0–3 FC Grimma

FC Grimma beat 1. FC Merseburg 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadtstadion Merseburg in Merseburg.