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1. FC Merseburg vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:00
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
6/6/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 33Sportplatz Ulmenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg33%
×Draw25%
Einheit Rudolstadt43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.34
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.56

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 82 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
57%
1. FC Merseburg or Einheit Rudolstadt
75%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
67%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
14%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
74%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
39%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
15%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
79%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
46%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
44%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
33%
level
25%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
43%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. FC Merseburg vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Match Preview

1. FC Merseburg face Einheit Rudolstadt on June 6, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

1. FC Merseburg host Einheit Rudolstadt at Sportplatz Ulmenweg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.