Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

1. FC Merseburg vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:00
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
6/12/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 37Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg29%
×Draw23%
Budissa Bautzen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.33
Budissa Bautzen
1.75

Budissa Bautzen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 77 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
53%
1. FC Merseburg or Budissa Bautzen
77%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
71%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
13%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
74%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
38%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
15%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
83%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
52%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
38%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
29%
level
23%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
47%

Budissa Bautzen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 1. FC Merseburg host Budissa Bautzen

June 12, 2022: 1. FC Merseburg take on Budissa Bautzen in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

1. FC Merseburg host Budissa Bautzen at Stadtstadion Merseburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.