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1. FC Merseburg vs Blau-Weiß Zorbau — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:00
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
6/12/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 32Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg35%
×Draw24%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.42
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 53 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
1.36

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
2.30

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Blau-Weiß Zorbau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
60%
1. FC Merseburg or Blau-Weiß Zorbau
76%
Draw or Blau-Weiß Zorbau
65%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
16%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
76%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
41%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
17%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals
79%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals
45%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
47%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.36 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
35%
level
24%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more
40%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Zorbau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. FC Merseburg vs Blau-Weiß Zorbau — Match Preview

1. FC Merseburg face Blau-Weiß Zorbau on June 12, 2022 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

1. FC Merseburg host Blau-Weiß Zorbau at Stadtstadion Merseburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.