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1. FC Merseburg vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
FT
0 – 1
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
11/20/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 14Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg24%
×Draw25%
Bischofswerdaer FV51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.06
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.65

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 77 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
49%
1. FC Merseburg or Bischofswerdaer FV
75%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
76%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
9%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
65%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
29%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
9%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
81%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
49%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
32%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
24%
level
25%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
51%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Merseburg vs Bischofswerdaer FV

Bischofswerdaer FV beat 1. FC Merseburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadtstadion Merseburg in Merseburg.