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1. FC Merseburg vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
13:00
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
3/12/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 19Sportplatz Ulmenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg31%
×Draw27%
An der Fahner Höhe43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.13
An der Fahner Höhe
1.38

An der Fahner Höhe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 37 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
57%
1. FC Merseburg or An der Fahner Höhe
73%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
69%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
12%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
68%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
31%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
11%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
75%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
40%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
42%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.13

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
31%
level
27%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
43%

An der Fahner Höhe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "An der Fahner Höhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. FC Merseburg face An der Fahner Höhe (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with 1. FC Merseburg hosting An der Fahner Höhe. Match starts March 12, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

1. FC Merseburg host An der Fahner Höhe at Sportplatz Ulmenweg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.