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1. FC Magdeburg vs FC Winterthur — Friendlies Clubs 2026

1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
M. Zukowski 88'
R. Ghrieb 31'
A. Hunziker 39'
1/6/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg46%
×Draw22%
FC Winterthur32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Magdeburg
1.98
FC Winterthur
1.64

1. FC Magdeburg creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg
2.20
FC Winterthur
0.88

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg
2.40
FC Winterthur
1.75

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw
68%
1. FC Magdeburg or FC Winterthur
78%
Draw or FC Winterthur
54%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
26%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
86%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
59%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
31%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
81%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
49%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
59%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 2.20 + FC Winterthur defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

FC Winterthur attack 0.88 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more
46%
level
22%
FC Winterthur scores more
32%

1. FC Magdeburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
R. Ghrieb
39'
A. Hunziker
88'
M. Zukowski
1.
FC
Petrik Sander
Manager: Petrik Sander
Patrick Rahmen
Manager: Patrick Rahmen

Friendlies Clubs: 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1 FC Winterthur

1. FC Magdeburg beat FC Winterthur 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2026.

Goals: R. Ghrieb (31'), A. Hunziker (39'), M. Zukowski (88').