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1. FC Magdeburg vs Dynamo Kyiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
1/10/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Kaya Palazzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg34%
×Draw20%
Dynamo Kyiv46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Magdeburg
2.03
Dynamo Kyiv
2.38

Dynamo Kyiv creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg
2.17
Dynamo Kyiv
2.44

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg
2.33
Dynamo Kyiv
1.89

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw
54%
1. FC Magdeburg or Dynamo Kyiv
80%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
66%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
18%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
87%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
60%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
33%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
91%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
68%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
42%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 2.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 2.17 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.03

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more
34%
level
20%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
46%

Dynamo Kyiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: 1. FC Magdeburg 3–1 Dynamo Kyiv

1. FC Magdeburg beat Dynamo Kyiv 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2025.

The match was played at Kaya Palazzo in Belek.