1. FC Köln 0–0 RB Leipzig: Result & Stats

1. FC Köln

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RB Leipzig

2/4/2023

Bundesliga · Round 19RheinEnergieStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

1. FC Köln40%

×Draw24%

RB Leipzig36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KölnExpected goals in this matchRB Leipzig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.44

1. FC Köln

1.53

RB Leipzig

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

1.54

creates per match

1.43

1.46

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

1. FC Köln

1.54

RB Leipzig

1.43

allows per match

1. FC Köln

1.46

RB Leipzig

1.52

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.02on par

RB Leipzig-0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

RB Leipzig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw

64%

1. FC Köln or RB Leipzig

76%

Draw or RB Leipzig

60%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

19%

RB Leipzig wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

78%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

45%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

20%

RB Leipzig 1+ goals

76%

RB Leipzig 2+ goals

42%

RB Leipzig 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

53%

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 25 matches

RB Leipzig away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.54 + RB Leipzig defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

RB Leipzig attack 1.43 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1. FC Köln scores more

40%

level

24%

RB Leipzig scores more

36%

1. FC Köln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

J. Gvardiol

RB Leipzig · D

8.0

Match Events

31'

37'

41'

41'

45+2'

48'

Timo WernerGoal cancelled

55'

D. Huseinbašić← D. Ljubičić

61'

M. Halstenberg← D. Raum

67'

E. Forsberg← D. Szoboszlai

73'

Benjamin Henrichs

73'

J. Thielmann← F. Kainz

73'

D. Selke← S. Tigges

83'

A. Haidara← X. Schlager

83'

Y. Poulsen← André Silva

85'

S. Adamyan← L. Maina

85'

T. Lemperle← D. Selke

89'

Sargis Adamyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.RB

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots7

0.77Expected Goals (xG)1.27

5Corners1

10Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots7

0On Target2

4Off Target2

5Blocked3

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

434Total Passes569

321Accurate Passes439

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 0–0 RB Leipzig

1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on February 4, 2023.

RB Leipzig controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at RheinEnergieStadion in Köln.

1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig — Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 0–0 RB Leipzig