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1. FC Köln vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
4/20/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30RheinEnergieSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

1. FC Köln57%
×Draw21%
Preußen Münster22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Köln
2.10
Preußen Münster
1.22

1. FC Köln creates 72% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

1. FC Köln
2.41
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

1. FC Köln
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw
78%
1. FC Köln or Preußen Münster
79%
Draw or Preußen Münster
43%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+
35%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals
88%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
62%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
35%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
70%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
34%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
73%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 2.41 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.10

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

1. FC Köln scores more
57%
level
21%
Preußen Münster scores more
22%

1. FC Köln at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 3–1 Preußen Münster

1. FC Köln beat Preußen Münster 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at RheinEnergieSTADION in Köln.