1. FC Köln 1–2 Fehérvár FC: Result & Stats

1. FC Köln

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Fehérvár FC

8/18/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsRheinEnergieStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

1. FC Köln40%

×Draw24%

Fehérvár FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KölnExpected goals in this matchFehérvár FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.46

1. FC Köln

1.54

Fehérvár FC

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.17

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

1. FC Köln

1.75

Fehérvár FC

1.17

allows per match

1. FC Köln

1.75

Fehérvár FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.00on par

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Fehérvár FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw

64%

1. FC Köln or Fehérvár FC

76%

Draw or Fehérvár FC

60%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

19%

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

79%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

45%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

20%

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

77%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

43%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

52%

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.75 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fehérvár FC attack 1.17 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1. FC Köln scores more

40%

level

24%

Fehérvár FC scores more

36%

1. FC Köln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff