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1. FC Köln vs Deutz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
FT
5 – 0
Deutz
Deutz
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1. FC Köln84%
×Draw10%
Deutz6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Köln
3.31
Deutz
0.78

1. FC Köln creates 324% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

1. FC Köln
3.29
Deutz
1.00

allows per match

1. FC Köln
0.57
Deutz
3.33

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.00on par
Deutz+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Deutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw
94%
1. FC Köln or Deutz
90%
Draw or Deutz
16%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+
67%
Deutz wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals
96%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
83%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
62%
Deutz 1+ goals
54%
Deutz 2+ goals
18%
Deutz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
94%
Deutz (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Deutz away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 3.29 + Deutz defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.31

Deutz attack 1.00 + 1. FC Köln defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

1. FC Köln scores more
84%
level
10%
Deutz scores more
6%

1. FC Köln at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Köln vs Deutz

1. FC Köln beat Deutz 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.