1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–1 SSV Ulm 1846

1. FC Kaiserslautern

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

SSV Ulm 1846

F. Kaloč 37'

M. Ritter 23'

P. Strompf 4'

1/18/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 18Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern48%

×Draw25%

SSV Ulm 184627%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.16

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.64

SSV Ulm 1846

1.16

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 41% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

1.75

creates per match

0.88

1.43

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.75

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.43

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw

73%

1. FC Kaiserslautern or SSV Ulm 1846

75%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

52%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

25%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

81%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

49%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

23%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

69%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

32%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

64%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 80 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.75 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.64

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

48%

level

25%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

27%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Ritter

1. FC Kaiserslautern · F

8.0

Match Events

4'

P. Strompf

23'

M. Ritter↳ D. Hanslik

28'

36'

37'

46'

47'

56'

Maurice Krattenmacher

60'

L. Röser← S. Telalović

61'

O. Batista Meier← L. Stoll

63'

E. Wekesser← F. Kleinhansl

63'

A. Aremu← Leon Robinson

78'

M. Brandt← L. Hyryläinen

79'

R. Ache← D. Yokota

79'

J. Meier← M. Krattenmacher

89'

R. Tachie← D. Hanslik

90+1'

Erik Wekesser

90'

T. Raschl← M. Ritter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.SSV

Overview

51%Possession49%

22Total Shots15

7Corners5

14Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots15

8On Target7

9Off Target6

5Blocked2

9Inside Box11

13Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

402Total Passes376

329Accurate Passes286

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat SSV Ulm 1846 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 18, 2025.

Goals: P. Strompf (4'), M. Ritter (23'), F. Kaloč (37').

1. FC Kaiserslautern controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846