1º Dezembro 1–2 SC Braga: Result & Stats

1º Dezembro

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SC Braga

10/19/2024

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

1º Dezembro18%

×Draw20%

SC Braga62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º DezembroExpected goals in this matchSC Braga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.15

1º Dezembro

1.07

SC Braga

2.15

SC Braga creates 101% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

1.20

creates per match

2.29

2.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

1º Dezembro

1.20

SC Braga

2.29

allows per match

1º Dezembro

2.00

SC Braga

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º Dezembro+0.00on par

SC Braga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º Dezembro ↓

SC Braga →

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

1º Dezembro or draw

38%

1º Dezembro or SC Braga

80%

Draw or SC Braga

82%

Winning margin

1º Dezembro wins by 2+

SC Braga wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

1º Dezembro 1+ goals

66%

1º Dezembro 2+ goals

29%

1º Dezembro 3+ goals

SC Braga 1+ goals

88%

SC Braga 2+ goals

63%

SC Braga 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

1º Dezembro (draw refunded)

23%

SC Braga (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

1º Dezembro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

SC Braga away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

1º Dezembro attack 1.20 + SC Braga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

SC Braga attack 2.29 + 1º Dezembro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

1º Dezembro scores more

18%

level

20%

SC Braga scores more

62%

SC Braga at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff