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1º Dezembro vs Oliveira Hospital — Liga 3 2021

1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
12/14/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 14Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

1º Dezembro42%
×Draw28%
Oliveira Hospital30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º Dezembro
1.29
Oliveira Hospital
1.05

1º Dezembro creates 23% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 56 away

creates per match

1º Dezembro
1.00
Oliveira Hospital
0.93

allows per match

1º Dezembro
1.18
Oliveira Hospital
1.57

finishing

1º Dezembro+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º Dezembro ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

1º Dezembro or draw
70%
1º Dezembro or Oliveira Hospital
72%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
58%

Winning margin

1º Dezembro wins by 2+
19%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

1º Dezembro 1+ goals
72%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
37%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
14%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
65%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
28%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
58%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º Dezembro at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º Dezembro attack 1.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

1º Dezembro scores more
42%
level
28%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
30%

1º Dezembro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "1º Dezembro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: 1º Dezembro 2–0 Oliveira Hospital

1º Dezembro beat Oliveira Hospital 2-0 in Liga 3 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.