1º Dezembro 1–1 Lusitano Évora 1911: Result & Stats

1º Dezembro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lusitano Évora 1911

P. Lima 44'

R. Monteiro 81'

1/24/2026

Liga 3 · Round 18Campo Conde de Sucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

1º Dezembro39%

×Draw29%

Lusitano Évora 191132%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º DezembroExpected goals in this matchLusitano Évora 1911

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.05

1º Dezembro

1.18

Lusitano Évora 1911

1.05

1º Dezembro creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.18

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

1º Dezembro

1.00

Lusitano Évora 1911

0.93

allows per match

1º Dezembro

1.18

Lusitano Évora 1911

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º Dezembro+0.00on par

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º Dezembro ↓

Lusitano Évora 1911 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

1º Dezembro or draw

68%

1º Dezembro or Lusitano Évora 1911

71%

Draw or Lusitano Évora 1911

61%

Winning margin

1º Dezembro wins by 2+

16%

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

1º Dezembro 1+ goals

69%

1º Dezembro 2+ goals

33%

1º Dezembro 3+ goals

12%

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals

65%

Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals

28%

Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

1º Dezembro (draw refunded)

55%

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º Dezembro at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Lusitano Évora 1911 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º Dezembro attack 1.00 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 0.93 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

1º Dezembro scores more

39%

level

29%

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more

32%

1º Dezembro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "1º Dezembro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

44'

45+4'

46'

49'

61'

81'

82'

87'

L. Tavares← P. Lima

87'

J. Arroyo← S. Harramiz

90+2'

1º

Lusitano

22

53

4

25

37

⚽

Monteiro

10

▼

Aguas

14

Cande

11

Almara

30

▼

9

80

1

33

44

85

13

24

22

6

⚽

▼

Lima

20

▼

Harramiz

7

Ferreira

81

Ferreira

Manager: Pedro Caneco

87'▲L. Tavares←▼P. Lima

87'▲J. Arroyo←▼S. Harramiz

1º Dezembro substitutes

47Oliveira2Ramos23Menezes42Tavares96Arroyo

Manager: Ricardo Pessoa

46'▲L. Tipote←▼S. Davou

61'▲M. Andrade←▼M. Aguas

Lusitano Évora 1911 substitutes

12Valverde5Palancha21Soares6Andrade18Mendonca17Vicente29Isnaba77Tipote