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1º Dezembro vs Atlético CP — Liga 3 2021

1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético CP
Atlético CP
12/17/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 14Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

1º Dezembro34%
×Draw29%
Atlético CP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º Dezembro
1.08
Atlético CP
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

1º Dezembro
1.00
Atlético CP
1.09

allows per match

1º Dezembro
1.18
Atlético CP
1.17

finishing

1º Dezembro+0.00on par
Atlético CP+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º Dezembro ↓

Atlético CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

1º Dezembro or draw
63%
1º Dezembro or Atlético CP
71%
Draw or Atlético CP
66%

Winning margin

1º Dezembro wins by 2+
13%
Atlético CP wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

1º Dezembro 1+ goals
66%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
29%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
10%
Atlético CP 1+ goals
68%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
32%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
48%
Atlético CP (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º Dezembro at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Atlético CP away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º Dezembro attack 1.00 + Atlético CP defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atlético CP attack 1.09 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

1º Dezembro scores more
34%
level
29%
Atlético CP scores more
37%

Atlético CP at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: 1º Dezembro 1–2 Atlético CP

Atlético CP beat 1º Dezembro 2-1 in Liga 3 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.