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1º de Maio vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

1º de Maio
1º de Maio
CANC
00:00
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
11/30/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa (Benguela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

1º de Maio57%
×Draw26%
Ferroviário do Huambo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Maio
1.53
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.70

1º de Maio creates 119% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

creates per match

1º de Maio
1.18
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

1º de Maio
1.00
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

1º de Maio+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Maio ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

1º de Maio or draw
83%
1º de Maio or Ferroviário do Huambo
74%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
43%

Winning margin

1º de Maio wins by 2+
30%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

1º de Maio 1+ goals
78%
1º de Maio 2+ goals
45%
1º de Maio 3+ goals
20%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
50%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
16%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

1º de Maio (draw refunded)
77%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Maio at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Maio attack 1.18 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + 1º de Maio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

1º de Maio scores more
57%
level
26%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
17%

1º de Maio at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "1º de Maio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1º de Maio vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Match Preview

1º de Maio face Ferroviário do Huambo on November 30, 2019 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

1º de Maio host Ferroviário do Huambo at Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa (Benguela).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.