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1º de Maio vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

1º de Maio
1º de Maio
CANC
00:00
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
1/17/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

1º de Maio39%
×Draw30%
Bravos do Maquis FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Maio
1.14
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.97

1º de Maio creates 18% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 106 away

creates per match

1º de Maio
1.18
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

1º de Maio
1.00
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

1º de Maio+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Maio ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

1º de Maio or draw
69%
1º de Maio or Bravos do Maquis FC
70%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
61%

Winning margin

1º de Maio wins by 2+
16%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

1º de Maio 1+ goals
68%
1º de Maio 2+ goals
32%
1º de Maio 3+ goals
11%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
62%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
25%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

1º de Maio (draw refunded)
56%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Maio at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Maio attack 1.18 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + 1º de Maio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

1º de Maio scores more
39%
level
30%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
31%

1º de Maio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "1º de Maio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 1º de Maio host Bravos do Maquis FC

January 17, 2020: 1º de Maio take on Bravos do Maquis FC in Girabola. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.