1º de Agosto 1–0 Sporting de Cabinda

1º de Agosto

FT

1 – 0

Sporting de Cabinda

4/2/2023

Girabola · Round 23Estádio França Ndalu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

1º de Agosto82%

×Draw12%

Sporting de Cabinda6%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º de AgostoExpected goals in this matchSporting de Cabinda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.69

1º de Agosto

2.92

Sporting de Cabinda

0.69

1º de Agosto creates 323% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 4 away

1.83

creates per match

0.75

0.62

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

1º de Agosto

1.83

Sporting de Cabinda

0.75

allows per match

1º de Agosto

0.62

Sporting de Cabinda

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw

94%

1º de Agosto or Sporting de Cabinda

88%

Draw or Sporting de Cabinda

18%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

62%

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

94%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

78%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

55%

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

50%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

15%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

93%

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.83 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.75 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

1º de Agosto scores more

82%

level

12%

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

6%

1º de Agosto at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff