1º de Agosto 1–1 São Salvador: Result & Stats

1º de Agosto

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

São Salvador

5/26/2024

Girabola · Round 28Estádio França Ndalu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

1º de Agosto61%

×Draw25%

São Salvador14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º de AgostoExpected goals in this matchSão Salvador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.61

1º de Agosto

1.58

São Salvador

0.61

1º de Agosto creates 159% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 44 away

1.82

creates per match

0.59

0.63

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

1º de Agosto

1.82

São Salvador

0.59

allows per match

1º de Agosto

0.63

São Salvador

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

São Salvador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw

86%

1º de Agosto or São Salvador

75%

Draw or São Salvador

39%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

33%

São Salvador wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

79%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

47%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

21%

São Salvador 1+ goals

46%

São Salvador 2+ goals

13%

São Salvador 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

81%

São Salvador (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.63 · 109 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.82 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

São Salvador attack 0.59 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

1º de Agosto scores more

61%

level

25%

São Salvador scores more

14%

1º de Agosto at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff