1º de Agosto 2–0 Recreativo do Libolo

1º de Agosto

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Recreativo do Libolo

5/6/2026

Girabola · Round 26Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

1º de Agosto62%

×Draw25%

Recreativo do Libolo14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º de AgostoExpected goals in this matchRecreativo do Libolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.60

1º de Agosto

1.60

Recreativo do Libolo

0.60

1º de Agosto creates 167% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

1.83

creates per match

0.59

0.62

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

1º de Agosto

1.83

Recreativo do Libolo

0.59

allows per match

1º de Agosto

0.62

Recreativo do Libolo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw

86%

1º de Agosto or Recreativo do Libolo

75%

Draw or Recreativo do Libolo

38%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

34%

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

80%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

47%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

22%

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

45%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

12%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

82%

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.83 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.59 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

1º de Agosto scores more

62%

level

25%

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

14%

1º de Agosto at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff