1º de Agosto 1–0 Recreativo do Libolo

1º de Agosto

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Recreativo do Libolo

11/12/2023

Girabola · Round 3Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

1º de Agosto59%

×Draw25%

Recreativo do Libolo16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º de AgostoExpected goals in this matchRecreativo do Libolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.68

1º de Agosto

1.56

Recreativo do Libolo

0.68

1º de Agosto creates 129% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 102 away

1.82

creates per match

0.73

0.63

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

1º de Agosto

1.82

Recreativo do Libolo

0.73

allows per match

1º de Agosto

0.63

Recreativo do Libolo

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw

84%

1º de Agosto or Recreativo do Libolo

75%

Draw or Recreativo do Libolo

41%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

31%

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

79%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

46%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

21%

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

49%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

15%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

78%

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.63 · 109 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.82 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.73 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1º de Agosto scores more

59%

level

25%

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

16%

1º de Agosto at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff