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1º de Agosto vs Kabuscorp — Girabola 2025

1º de Agosto
1º de Agosto
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
Unknown 68', 38'
Unknown 90+4', 85'
2/14/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

1º de Agosto51%
×Draw28%
Kabuscorp21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Agosto
1.35
Kabuscorp
0.77

1º de Agosto creates 75% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

creates per match

1º de Agosto
1.83
Kabuscorp
0.91

allows per match

1º de Agosto
0.62
Kabuscorp
0.87

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par
Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Kabuscorp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw
79%
1º de Agosto or Kabuscorp
72%
Draw or Kabuscorp
49%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+
24%
Kabuscorp wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals
74%
1º de Agosto 2+ goals
39%
1º de Agosto 3+ goals
15%
Kabuscorp 1+ goals
54%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
18%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)
70%
Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.83 + Kabuscorp defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kabuscorp attack 0.91 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

1º de Agosto scores more
51%
level
28%
Kabuscorp scores more
21%

1º de Agosto at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
38'
68'
85'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: 1º de Agosto 2–2 Kabuscorp

1º de Agosto and Kabuscorp drew 2-2 in Girabola on February 14, 2025.

Goals: ? (38', 68', 85', 90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.