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1º de Agosto vs Dragão — Girabola 2019

1º de Agosto
1º de Agosto
FT
3 – 0
Dragão
Dragão
2/26/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 20Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

1º de Agosto77%
×Draw16%
Dragão7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Agosto
2.30
Dragão
0.54

1º de Agosto creates 326% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 14 away

creates per match

1º de Agosto
1.81
Dragão
0.43

allows per match

1º de Agosto
0.64
Dragão
2.79

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par
Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Dragão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw
93%
1º de Agosto or Dragão
84%
Draw or Dragão
23%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+
53%
Dragão wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals
90%
1º de Agosto 2+ goals
67%
1º de Agosto 3+ goals
40%
Dragão 1+ goals
42%
Dragão 2+ goals
10%
Dragão 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)
92%
Dragão (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.64 · 107 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.81 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.30

Dragão attack 0.43 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

1º de Agosto scores more
77%
level
16%
Dragão scores more
7%

1º de Agosto at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: 1º de Agosto 3–0 Dragão

1º de Agosto beat Dragão 3-0 in Girabola on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.