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1º de Agosto vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

1º de Agosto
1º de Agosto
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
9/28/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

1º de Agosto60%
×Draw24%
Cuando Cubango16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Agosto
1.66
Cuando Cubango
0.72

1º de Agosto creates 131% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 50 away

creates per match

1º de Agosto
1.81
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

1º de Agosto
0.64
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw
84%
1º de Agosto or Cuando Cubango
76%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
40%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+
33%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals
81%
1º de Agosto 2+ goals
49%
1º de Agosto 3+ goals
23%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
51%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
16%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)
79%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.64 · 107 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.81 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

1º de Agosto scores more
60%
level
24%
Cuando Cubango scores more
16%

1º de Agosto at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: 1º de Agosto 0–0 Cuando Cubango

1º de Agosto and Cuando Cubango drew 0-0 in Girabola on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.