07 Vestur II 0–4 Skála: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

07 Vestur II

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Skála

3/7/2025

1. Deild · Round 1á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

07 Vestur II9%

×Draw13%

Skála78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

07 Vestur IIExpected goals in this matchSkála

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

3.19

07 Vestur II

1.06

Skála

3.19

Skála creates 201% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

1.31

creates per match

2.88

3.50

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

07 Vestur II

1.31

Skála

2.88

allows per match

07 Vestur II

3.50

Skála

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

07 Vestur II+0.00on par

Skála+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur II ↓

Skála →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

07 Vestur II or draw

22%

07 Vestur II or Skála

87%

Draw or Skála

91%

Winning margin

07 Vestur II wins by 2+

3%

Skála wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

07 Vestur II 1+ goals

65%

07 Vestur II 2+ goals

29%

07 Vestur II 3+ goals

9%

Skála 1+ goals

96%

Skála 2+ goals

82%

Skála 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur II (draw refunded)

11%

Skála (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.50 · 26 matches

Skála away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.82 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur II attack 1.31 + Skála defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Skála attack 2.88 + 07 Vestur II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

07 Vestur II scores more

9%

level

13%

Skála scores more

78%

Skála at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Skála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff