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07 Vestur II vs NSÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

07 Vestur II
07 Vestur II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
NSÍ II
NSÍ II
4/16/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 6á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

07 Vestur II24%
×Draw18%
NSÍ II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

07 Vestur II
1.75
NSÍ II
2.72

NSÍ II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 89 away

creates per match

07 Vestur II
1.31
NSÍ II
1.94

allows per match

07 Vestur II
3.50
NSÍ II
2.18

finishing

07 Vestur II+0.00on par
NSÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur II ↓

NSÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

07 Vestur II or draw
42%
07 Vestur II or NSÍ II
82%
Draw or NSÍ II
76%

Winning margin

07 Vestur II wins by 2+
11%
NSÍ II wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

07 Vestur II 1+ goals
83%
07 Vestur II 2+ goals
52%
07 Vestur II 3+ goals
25%
NSÍ II 1+ goals
93%
NSÍ II 2+ goals
75%
NSÍ II 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur II (draw refunded)
30%
NSÍ II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.50 · 26 matches

NSÍ II away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur II attack 1.31 + NSÍ II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.75

NSÍ II attack 1.94 + 07 Vestur II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

07 Vestur II scores more
24%
level
18%
NSÍ II scores more
58%

NSÍ II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "NSÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: 07 Vestur II 2–3 NSÍ II

NSÍ II beat 07 Vestur II 3-2 in 1. Deild on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.