07 Vestur II 2–3 KÍ II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

07 Vestur II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

KÍ II

7/26/2022

1. Deild · Round 16á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

07 Vestur II22%

×Draw18%

KÍ II60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

07 Vestur IIExpected goals in this matchKÍ II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.68

07 Vestur II

1.60

KÍ II

2.68

KÍ II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 94 away

1.31

creates per match

1.86

3.50

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

07 Vestur II

1.31

KÍ II

1.86

allows per match

07 Vestur II

3.50

KÍ II

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

07 Vestur II+0.00on par

KÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur II ↓

KÍ II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

07 Vestur II or draw

40%

07 Vestur II or KÍ II

82%

Draw or KÍ II

78%

Winning margin

07 Vestur II wins by 2+

10%

KÍ II wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

07 Vestur II 1+ goals

80%

07 Vestur II 2+ goals

47%

07 Vestur II 3+ goals

22%

KÍ II 1+ goals

93%

KÍ II 2+ goals

74%

KÍ II 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur II (draw refunded)

27%

KÍ II (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.50 · 26 matches

KÍ II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.90 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur II attack 1.31 + KÍ II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

KÍ II attack 1.86 + 07 Vestur II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

07 Vestur II scores more

22%

level

18%

KÍ II scores more

60%

KÍ II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "KÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff