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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
0 – 0
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
4/30/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac56%
×Draw23%
Rudar Kakanj21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.76
Rudar Kakanj
0.98

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 80% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 68 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Rudar Kakanj
0.90

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Rudar Kakanj
1.56

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
79%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Rudar Kakanj
77%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
44%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
31%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
83%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
52%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
26%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
62%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
26%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
73%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.76

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.90 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
56%
level
23%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
21%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Rudar Kakanj

Zvijezda Gradačac and Rudar Kakanj drew 0-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.