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Zvezda Perm W vs CSKA Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Zvezda Perm W
Zvezda Perm W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Moskva W
CSKA Moskva W
8/20/2022Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 15Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zvezda Perm W20%
×Draw25%
CSKA Moskva W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm W
0.83
CSKA Moskva W
1.56

CSKA Moskva W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 75 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm W
1.20
CSKA Moskva W
2.16

allows per match

Zvezda Perm W
0.97
CSKA Moskva W
0.47

finishing

Zvezda Perm W+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm W or draw
45%
Zvezda Perm W or CSKA Moskva W
75%
Draw or CSKA Moskva W
80%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm W wins by 2+
6%
CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm W 1+ goals
56%
Zvezda Perm W 2+ goals
20%
Zvezda Perm W 3+ goals
5%
CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals
79%
CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals
46%
CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm W (draw refunded)
27%
CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 69 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm W attack 1.20 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.83

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Zvezda Perm W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zvezda Perm W scores more
20%
level
25%
CSKA Moskva W scores more
55%

CSKA Moskva W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Zvezda Perm W 1–2 CSKA Moskva W

CSKA Moskva W beat Zvezda Perm W 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.