Zürich W 0–2 Young Boys W: Result & Stats

Zürich W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Young Boys W

3/16/2024

AXA Women’s Super League · Round 15Sportanlage Heerenschürli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zürich W58%

×Draw20%

Young Boys W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zürich WExpected goals in this matchYoung Boys W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.43

Zürich W

2.35

Young Boys W

1.43

Zürich W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 57 away

2.97

creates per match

1.86

1.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Zürich W

2.97

Young Boys W

1.86

allows per match

Zürich W

1.00

Young Boys W

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zürich W+0.00on par

Young Boys W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich W ↓

Young Boys W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Zürich W or draw

77%

Zürich W or Young Boys W

80%

Draw or Young Boys W

42%

Winning margin

Zürich W wins by 2+

36%

Young Boys W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zürich W 1+ goals

90%

Zürich W 2+ goals

68%

Zürich W 3+ goals

41%

Young Boys W 1+ goals

76%

Young Boys W 2+ goals

42%

Young Boys W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zürich W (draw refunded)

72%

Young Boys W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich W at home — creates 2.97, concedes 1.00 · 69 matches

Young Boys W away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich W attack 2.97 + Young Boys W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.35

Young Boys W attack 1.86 + Zürich W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zürich W scores more

58%

level

20%

Young Boys W scores more

23%

Zürich W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zürich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff