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Zürich II vs Brühl — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Zürich II
Zürich II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Brühl
Brühl
2/28/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 17Sportzentrum Heerenschürli Platz 5 Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Zürich II45%
×Draw23%
Brühl32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich II
1.85
Brühl
1.54

Zürich II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Zürich II
1.75
Brühl
1.59

allows per match

Zürich II
1.50
Brühl
1.95

finishing

Zürich II+0.00on par
Brühl+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich II ↓

Brühl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zürich II or draw
68%
Zürich II or Brühl
77%
Draw or Brühl
55%

Winning margin

Zürich II wins by 2+
25%
Brühl wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zürich II 1+ goals
84%
Zürich II 2+ goals
55%
Zürich II 3+ goals
28%
Brühl 1+ goals
79%
Brühl 2+ goals
45%
Brühl 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zürich II (draw refunded)
58%
Brühl (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 104 matches

Brühl away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.95 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich II attack 1.75 + Brühl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Brühl attack 1.59 + Zürich II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zürich II scores more
45%
level
23%
Brühl scores more
32%

Zürich II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zürich II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zürich II vs Brühl

Zürich II beat Brühl 3-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Heerenschürli Platz 5 Kunstrasen in Zürich.