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Zulte-Waregem W vs Charleroi W — Super League Women 2018

Zulte-Waregem W
Zulte-Waregem W
FT
2 – 0
Charleroi W
Charleroi W
5/11/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Relegation Round - 6Kastanjelaan 75 Terrein 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Zulte-Waregem W62%
×Draw20%
Charleroi W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulte-Waregem W
2.23
Charleroi W
1.14

Zulte-Waregem W creates 96% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 52 away

creates per match

Zulte-Waregem W
1.40
Charleroi W
0.63

allows per match

Zulte-Waregem W
1.65
Charleroi W
3.06

finishing

Zulte-Waregem W+0.00on par
Charleroi W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte-Waregem W ↓

Charleroi W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zulte-Waregem W or draw
81%
Zulte-Waregem W or Charleroi W
80%
Draw or Charleroi W
38%

Winning margin

Zulte-Waregem W wins by 2+
39%
Charleroi W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zulte-Waregem W 1+ goals
89%
Zulte-Waregem W 2+ goals
65%
Zulte-Waregem W 3+ goals
38%
Charleroi W 1+ goals
68%
Charleroi W 2+ goals
32%
Charleroi W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zulte-Waregem W (draw refunded)
77%
Charleroi W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte-Waregem W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 78 matches

Charleroi W away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte-Waregem W attack 1.40 + Charleroi W defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.23

Charleroi W attack 0.63 + Zulte-Waregem W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zulte-Waregem W scores more
62%
level
20%
Charleroi W scores more
19%

Zulte-Waregem W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zulte-Waregem W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Zulte-Waregem W 2–0 Charleroi W

Zulte-Waregem W beat Charleroi W 2-0 in Super League Women on May 11, 2021.

The match was played at Kastanjelaan 75 Terrein 1 in Zulte.