Zulte Waregem 2–2 SK Beveren: Result & Stats

Zulte Waregem

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SK Beveren

Hamdi Harbaoui 64'

Hicham Faik 4'

Joachim Van Damme 90'

Aleksandar Boljevic 85'

7/28/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 1Regenboogstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Zulte Waregem43%

×Draw23%

SK Beveren33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulte WaregemExpected goals in this matchSK Beveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.48

Zulte Waregem

1.71

SK Beveren

1.48

Zulte Waregem creates 16% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 50 away

1.62

creates per match

1.08

1.89

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Zulte Waregem

1.62

SK Beveren

1.08

allows per match

Zulte Waregem

1.89

SK Beveren

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par

SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

SK Beveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw

67%

Zulte Waregem or SK Beveren

77%

Draw or SK Beveren

57%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

23%

SK Beveren wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

82%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

51%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

24%

SK Beveren 1+ goals

77%

SK Beveren 2+ goals

43%

SK Beveren 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

56%

SK Beveren (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 99 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.80 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.62 + SK Beveren defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

SK Beveren attack 1.08 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more

43%

level

23%

SK Beveren scores more

33%

Zulte Waregem at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

35'

49'

59'

64'

64'

Daan Heymans← Djihad Bizimana

70'

Hamdi Harbaoui

76'

Marvin Baudry

76'

Aleksandar Boljevic← Nana Opoku Ampomah

85'

Aleksandar Boljevic

90'

Joachim Van Damme

90'

Henrik Bjørdal← Onur Kaya

90'

Johan Bjørdal← Thomas Buffel

Statistics

ZulteSK

Overview

5Corners4

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0