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Zulte Waregem vs AZ Alkmaar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
Preview
18:00
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
44%
Zulte Waregem
model favours
44%23%34%

Zulte Waregem have won 10 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zulte Waregem44%
×Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulte Waregem
1.82
AZ Alkmaar
1.58

Zulte Waregem creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Zulte Waregem
2.64
AZ Alkmaar
1.25

allows per match

Zulte Waregem
1.91
AZ Alkmaar
1.00

finishing

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par
AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw
66%
Zulte Waregem or AZ Alkmaar
77%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
56%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
23%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
84%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
54%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
27%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
79%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
47%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
56%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 2.64 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.25 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more
44%
level
23%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
34%

Zulte Waregem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Zulte Waregem are unbeaten in 12 straight
  • AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in 9 straight
  • AZ Alkmaar score first in only 18% of matches
  • Zulte Waregem have scored in 12 games running
  • Both teams score in 84% of AZ Alkmaar’s matches
  • Zulte Waregem score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Waregem
WWWWW
Alkmaar
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zulte Waregem vs AZ Alkmaar — Match Preview

Zulte Waregem face AZ Alkmaar on July 18, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.