Zulte Waregem 2–2 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

Zulte Waregem

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Anderlecht

G. Bruno 75'

I. Seck 8'

A. Lokonga 65'

L. Nmecha 42'

12/4/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 15Regenboogstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Zulte Waregem48%

×Draw23%

Anderlecht28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulte WaregemExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.31

Zulte Waregem

1.77

Anderlecht

1.31

Zulte Waregem creates 35% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.68

creates per match

1.34

1.27

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Zulte Waregem

1.68

Anderlecht

1.34

allows per match

Zulte Waregem

1.27

Anderlecht

1.87

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Zulte Waregem-0.04on par

Anderlecht-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw

72%

Zulte Waregem or Anderlecht

77%

Draw or Anderlecht

52%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

26%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

83%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

53%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

26%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

73%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

38%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

63%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.27 · 14 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.87 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.68 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Anderlecht attack 1.34 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more

48%

level

23%

Anderlecht scores more

28%

Zulte Waregem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

I. Seck↳ B. Srarfi

30'

Michael Murillo

42'

L. Nmecha↳ P. Mukairu

61'

F. Amuzu← M. Bundu

65'

A. Lokonga↳ Y. Verschaeren

66'

70'

75'

82'

85'

90'

Statistics

ZulteAnderlecht

Overview

1Corners4

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht

Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on December 4, 2020.

Goals: I. Seck (8'), L. Nmecha (42'), A. Lokonga (65'), G. Bruno (75').

The match was played at Regenboogstadion in Waregem.

Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht