Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zulia FC vs Trujillanos FC — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FC
8/19/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Zulia FC53%
×Draw24%
Trujillanos FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.73
Trujillanos FC
1.07

Zulia FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Trujillanos FC
0.92

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Trujillanos FC
1.98

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Trujillanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Trujillanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
77%
Zulia FC or Trujillanos FC
76%
Draw or Trujillanos FC
47%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
29%
Trujillanos FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
82%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
52%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
25%
Trujillanos FC 1+ goals
66%
Trujillanos FC 2+ goals
29%
Trujillanos FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
69%
Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Trujillanos FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Trujillanos FC defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Trujillanos FC attack 0.92 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zulia FC scores more
53%
level
24%
Trujillanos FC scores more
23%

Zulia FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zulia FC vs Trujillanos FC

Zulia FC beat Trujillanos FC 3-2 in Primera División on August 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).