Zrinski Jurjevac 2–2 Sesvete: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sesvete

D. Dogan 84'

T. Kuprešak 32'

M. Sušak 73', 52'

9/29/2023

First NL · Round 8Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac37%

×Draw28%

Sesvete34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchSesvete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.13

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.19

Sesvete

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.15

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Sesvete

1.11

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Sesvete

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Sesvete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

66%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Sesvete

72%

Draw or Sesvete

63%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

16%

Sesvete wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

70%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

33%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

12%

Sesvete 1+ goals

68%

Sesvete 2+ goals

31%

Sesvete 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

52%

Sesvete (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.15 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sesvete attack 1.11 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

37%

level

28%

Sesvete scores more

34%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

T. Kuprešak

46'

M. Geljić← K. Kopljar

46'

V. Šare← M. Gašparac

52'

M. Sušak

57'

D. Topić← T. Kuprešak

57'

D. Jelavić← P. Korov

62'

M. Tadic

65'

I. Jajalo← A. Pekarić

67'

73'

80'

80'

82'

84'

86'

Zrinski

Sesvete

1

5

20

14

7

▼

Guja

8

▼

Duvnjak

6

▼

Gašparac

28

Barbnabas

21

⚽2

Sušak

10

▼

Topić

27

▼

24

6

2

3

⚽

▼

Kuprešak

16

▼

Pekarić

5

▼

Ćubel

8

▼

Horvat

9

Stranput

17

▼

Korov

33

Tadić

30

⚽

Dogan

57'▲D. Topić←▼T. Kuprešak

57'▲D. Jelavić←▼P. Korov

65'▲I. Jajalo←▼A. Pekarić

80'▲T. Glavan←▼M. Horvat

80'▲A. Mujagić←▼L. Ćubel

Zrinski Jurjevac substitutes

14Topić23Jelavić19Jajalo18Glavan21Mujagić1Čović7Salapić13Eskinja20Posinković

Manager: H. Horvat

46'▲M. Geljić←▼K. Kopljar

46'▲V. Šare←▼M. Gašparac

67'▲A. Matić←▼M. Topić

82'▲D. Braun←▼T. Duvnjak

86'▲F. Čuljak←▼M. Guja

Sesvete substitutes

9Geljić29Šare17Matić25Braun11Čuljak2Mamić15Ocvirek26Šušković30Šuart