Zrinski Jurjevac 1–2 Sesvete: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sesvete

M. Tadic 38' (pen)

N. Vukasovic 79'

F. Culjak 66'

6/4/2023

Second NL · Round 30Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac34%

×Draw29%

Sesvete37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchSesvete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.17

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.10

Sesvete

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.47

creates per match

1.67

0.67

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.47

Sesvete

1.67

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.67

Sesvete

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Sesvete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

63%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Sesvete

71%

Draw or Sesvete

66%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

14%

Sesvete wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

67%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

30%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

10%

Sesvete 1+ goals

69%

Sesvete 2+ goals

33%

Sesvete 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

48%

Sesvete (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Sesvete defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sesvete attack 1.67 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

34%

level

29%

Sesvete scores more

37%

Sesvete at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

M. TadicPenalty

45+2'

D. Suart

45+2'

D. Suart

66'

F. Culjak

79'

N. Vukasovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff