Zrinski Jurjevac 2–0 Jarun: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jarun

I. Jajalo 90+2'

A. Mujagić 71'

8/14/2023

First NL · Round 1Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac42%

×Draw28%

Jarun30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchJarun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.25

Jarun

1.00

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 82 away

1.15

creates per match

0.85

1.15

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Jarun

0.85

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Jarun

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Jarun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Jarun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

70%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Jarun

72%

Draw or Jarun

58%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

19%

Jarun wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

71%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

36%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

13%

Jarun 1+ goals

63%

Jarun 2+ goals

26%

Jarun 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

59%

Jarun (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Jarun away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.15 + Jarun defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jarun attack 0.85 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

42%

level

28%

Jarun scores more

30%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Zuljevic

30'

J. Pranjić← M. Žuljević

60'

I. Jajalo← A. Pekarić

60'

62'

63'

71'

80'

82'

T. Kupresak

84'

J. Marinić← M. Babić

84'

B. Bilobrk← J. Filipović

84'

I. Kukavica← H. Alghoul

85'

B. Bilobrk

89'

L. Ćubel← T. Kuprešak

90'

M. Horvat

90+2'

I. Jajalo

Zrinski

Jarun

14

▼

Stanić

12

Savatović

22

Ibáñez

16

▼

Filipović

25

Smoljo

5

Bičanić

7

▼

Babić

17

Abramović

4

Dajčer

10

▼

Žuljević

11

▼

24

6

2

3

▼

Kuprešak

16

▼

8

9

23

17

▼

Korov

21

⚽

▼

Mujagić

33

Tadić

60'▲I. Jajalo←▼A. Pekarić

60'▲D. Topić←▼P. Korov

80'▲D. Dogan←▼A. Mujagić

89'▲L. Ćubel←▼T. Kuprešak

Zrinski Jurjevac substitutes

19Jajalo14Topić30Dogan5Ćubel4Matković7Salapić18Glavan1Čović20Posinković

Manager: J. Leko

30'▲J. Pranjić←▼M. Žuljević

62'▲J. Tadić←▼L. Stanić

84'▲J. Marinić←▼M. Babić

84'▲B. Bilobrk←▼J. Filipović

84'▲I. Kukavica←▼H. Alghoul

Jarun substitutes

19Pranjić9Tadić8Marinić27Bilobrk23Kukavica1Ilinčić13Radujković6Karamatić2Huljić

First NL: Zrinski Jurjevac 2–0 Jarun

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Jarun 2-0 in First NL on August 14, 2023.

Goals: A. Mujagić (71'), I. Jajalo (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.

Zrinski Jurjevac vs Jarun — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: Zrinski Jurjevac 2–0 Jarun