Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Veres Rivne: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Veres Rivne

M. Imerekov 54'

5/3/2023

Premier League · Round 24Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Zorya Luhansk42%

×Draw26%

Veres Rivne32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchVeres Rivne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.21

Zorya Luhansk

1.41

Veres Rivne

1.21

Zorya Luhansk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.14

creates per match

1.09

1.33

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.14

Veres Rivne

1.09

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.33

Veres Rivne

1.68

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par

Veres Rivne-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Veres Rivne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

68%

Zorya Luhansk or Veres Rivne

74%

Draw or Veres Rivne

58%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

20%

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

76%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

41%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

17%

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

70%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

34%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

56%

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.68 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Veres Rivne defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.41

Veres Rivne attack 1.09 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

42%

level

26%

Veres Rivne scores more

32%

Zorya Luhansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Vadym Yushchyshyn

20'

B. Kogut← S. Sharay

37'

Volodymyr Brazhko

54'

M. Imerekov↳ S. Buletsa

58'

Hennadii Pasich

63'

D. Myshnov← D. Antyukh

68'

V. Dakhnovskyi← A. Bliznichenko

68'

M. Gayduchyk← M. Shestakov

80'

Maksym Imerekov

88'

Oleksandr Saputin

89'

K. Dryshlyuk← S. Buletsa

89'

D. Nagnoynyi← E. Guerrero

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ZoryaVeres

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots4

9Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots4

6On Target1

9Off Target2

3Blocked1

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1