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Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Premier League 2019

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
4/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Zorya Luhansk20%
×Draw23%
Shakhtar Donetsk57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
0.95
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.77

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 86% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.01
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.12

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.41
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.88

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.01on par
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.13scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
43%
Zorya Luhansk or Shakhtar Donetsk
77%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
80%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
7%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
61%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
25%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
7%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
83%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
53%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
26%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.12 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
20%
level
23%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
57%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Zorya Luhansk 1–3 Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Zorya Luhansk 3-1 in Premier League on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kiev.