Zorya Luhansk 0–1 Polessya: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Polessya

B. Makouana 16'

10/28/2023

Premier League · Round 12Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Zorya Luhansk26%

×Draw24%

Polessya50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchPolessya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.66

Zorya Luhansk

1.12

Polessya

1.66

Polessya creates 48% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

1.98

1.33

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.14

Polessya

1.98

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.33

Polessya

1.10

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par

Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Polessya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

50%

Zorya Luhansk or Polessya

76%

Draw or Polessya

74%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

10%

Polessya wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

67%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

31%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

10%

Polessya 1+ goals

81%

Polessya 2+ goals

49%

Polessya 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

34%

Polessya (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Polessya attack 1.98 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

26%

level

24%

Polessya scores more

50%

Polessya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

B. Makouana

39'

I. Snurnitsyn← R. Vantukh

46'

M. Kravchenko← Lucas Taylor

46'

Y. Morozko← V. Shapoval

46'

B. Krushynskyi← E. Mustafaev

55'

Ihor Snurnitsyn

64'

D. Nahnoinyi← P. Mićin

64'

D. Antiukh← I. Horbach

77'

D. Shastal← Arielson

85'

Mykyta Kravchenko

Zorya4-3-3

Polessya4-1-4-1

6

Tankovsky

95

▼

Mustafaev

18

⚽

Makouana

77

Kushniren

59

Kozak

99

▼

Arielson

13

▼

Taylor

11

▼

30

44

71

30

47

▼

70

55

44

22

▼

94

4

5

39

17

▼

Horbach

Manager: V. Kryventsov

39'▲I. Snurnitsyn←▼R. Vantukh

64'▲D. Nahnoinyi←▼P. Mićin

64'▲D. Antiukh←▼I. Horbach

Zorya Luhansk substitutes

74Snurnitsyn10Nahnoinyi7Antiukh3Bol24Holovkin11Alefirenko19Buhai1Saputin9Myshniov36Zhylkin20Churko78Wendell

Manager: Y. Kalitvintsev

46'▲M. Kravchenko←▼Lucas Taylor

46'▲Y. Morozko←▼V. Shapoval

46'▲B. Krushynskyi←▼E. Mustafaev

77'▲D. Shastal←▼Arielson

Polessya substitutes

5Kravchenko9Morozko55Krushynskyi23Shastal8Ohiria33Pospelov1Kudryk10Yanakov2Jarju20Mykytiuk4Hitchenko22Hrytsuk