Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zorya Luhansk vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
8/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Zorya Luhansk41%
×Draw27%
Oleksandria31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.32
Oleksandria
1.11

Zorya Luhansk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.14
Oleksandria
0.90

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.33
Oleksandria
1.51

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par
Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
69%
Zorya Luhansk or Oleksandria
73%
Draw or Oleksandria
59%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
19%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
73%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
38%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
15%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
67%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
30%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
57%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
41%
level
27%
Oleksandria scores more
31%

Zorya Luhansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Anderson Jordan
33'
Kyrylo Kovalets
56'
P. Mićin← V. Voloshyn
63'
R. Plaksa← K. Kovalets
63'
Geovani← A. Shulianskyi
76'
D. Alefirenko← D. Antiukh
76'
V. Pohorilyi← Y. Smyrnyi
76'
D. Vashchenko← A. Kulakov
85'
Roman Savchenko
86'
V. Churko← D. Myshniov
86'
I. Horbach← E. Guerrero
88'
D. Shostak← K. Siheiev

Possession

51%Zorya

Shots

7Zorya

Statistics

ZoryaOleksandria
Overview
51%Possession49%
7Total Shots6
5Corners3
14Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots6
3Off Target4
4Blocked1
Passing
51%Possession49%
Discipline
14Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Premier League: Zorya Luhansk 0–0 Oleksandria

Zorya Luhansk and Oleksandria drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 18, 2023.

Zorya Luhansk controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kiev.