Zorya Luhansk 0–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oleksandria

I. Kalyuzhnyi 40'

7/25/2021

Premier League · Round 1Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Zorya Luhansk41%

×Draw27%

Oleksandria31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Zorya Luhansk

1.32

Oleksandria

1.11

Zorya Luhansk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

0.90

1.33

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.14

Oleksandria

0.90

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.33

Oleksandria

1.51

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par

Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

69%

Zorya Luhansk or Oleksandria

73%

Draw or Oleksandria

59%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

19%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

73%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

38%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

15%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

67%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

30%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

57%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

41%

level

27%

Oleksandria scores more

31%

Zorya Luhansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

I. Kalyuzhnyi↳ K. Kovalets

62'

A. Sayyadmanesh← A. Gromov

62'

O. Gladkyi← S. Zahedi

64'

Oleg Bilyk

69'

O. Kozhushko← V. Odaryuk

73'

Cristian← E. Nazaryna

73'

D. Khomchenovskyi← D. Favorov

73'

C. Spinelli← D. Ustymenko

79'

Maksym Imerekov

82'

K. Dryshlyuk← I. Kalyuzhnyi

85'

M. Lunev← V. Vernydub

90+6'

Oleksandr Gladkiy

90+4'

Vladyslav Kochergin

90+6'

Vladyslav Babohlo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ZoryaOleksandria

Overview

65%Possession35%

7Total Shots9

8Corners4

25Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target5

3Off Target4

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

25Fouls19

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1