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Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
CANC
14:00
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
5/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Zorya Luhansk29%
×Draw29%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
0.97
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.23

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.14
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.12

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.33
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.80

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.26scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
58%
Zorya Luhansk or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
71%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
71%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
11%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
62%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
25%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
7%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
71%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
35%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
41%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.97

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.12 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
29%
level
29%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
42%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zorya Luhansk host Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

May 7, 2022: Zorya Luhansk take on Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zorya Luhansk host Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at Slavutych-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.