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Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy — Premier League 2019

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
11/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Stadion SKIF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Zorya Luhansk20%
×Draw28%
LNZ Cherkasy52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
0.74
LNZ Cherkasy
1.39

LNZ Cherkasy creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.01
LNZ Cherkasy
1.37

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.41
LNZ Cherkasy
0.47

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.01on par
LNZ Cherkasy+0.46scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
48%
Zorya Luhansk or LNZ Cherkasy
72%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy
80%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
6%
LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
52%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
17%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
4%
LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
75%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
40%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
28%
LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.47 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.74

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.37 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
20%
level
28%
LNZ Cherkasy scores more
52%

LNZ Cherkasy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy

LNZ Cherkasy beat Zorya Luhansk 2-1 in Premier League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SKIF in Lviv.